Everton v Coventry looks like a low-event game on paper, and I think it hinges on one question: who has to take the risk first? Everton have scored 9 and conceded 9 in nine league games, with four draws. Coventry have scored 9 and conceded 16, so they are the side whose defence gives something away. The catch is that Everton's own attack is thin, so a leaky visitor may not get punished as often as the numbers suggest.
Per our season records, Everton are 3W 4D 2L and Coventry 3W 0D 6L. Coventry have no draws at all, which says their games tend to split one way or the other, while Everton's games stay tight.
Availability matters on both sides. Our list has Grealish listed as doubtful with no reason given and George doubtful with an injury for Everton. For Coventry, Amenda and Wright are out, and Thomas, Eccles and Woolfenden are doubtful, so the back line could be rebuilt again. If Everton's creative player is missing, they lose the one who most often turns a tight game into a chance, and a patched Coventry defence would be facing a quieter attack than the one the 16 conceded implies.
So my open question: does a side that rarely loses by much (Everton) actually have the sharpness to exploit a defence this unsettled?
