Two Nations League matches where the absence lists reshape the picture more than the names do. At Wembley, Croatia arrive without the players who score their goals and with a centre-back unit built from scratch, against an England side that has beaten every non-Spain opponent in the group comfortably. In Italy, France lose their entire central-striker layer, and that was already the part of their game Italy shut down six weeks ago in Paris. Both readings come from how the teams mesh, not from reputation.
England v Croatia. Under Tuchel, England win by holding the ball, rotating the front four with Kane dropping in, and pressing the opponent's build-up. Against the group's non-Spain sides they won 2-0, 7-0 and 3-0 and conceded very little. Croatia under Bilic play without the ball against top sides and score through transitions. In October, two England goals came straight from Croatia build-up errors under pressure.
The absences tilt it further. Perisic, who scored against Spain, is suspended. Kramaric and Ivanovic are injured and Luka Sucic has a fever. Sutalo and Pongracic are also out, so Gvardiol moves to left-back behind a new centre-back pair. England's own back line is makeshift too, with Guehi, Konsa and Stones missing. But Croatia's means of punishing that is the thinnest it has been: Matanovic as a target, Modric set pieces and Kovacic carries. Bilic's new three-man midfield may slow the game. Even so, England's press against a rebuilt Croatian back line is the matchup that should decide it. That's why I'm siding with England to win.
Italy v France. Six weeks ago in Paris the same two coaches, the same French midfield trio and centre-backs and the same Italian back five played out a draw. Italy had more shots inside the box and the better chances, and they scored from a Bastoni-led press on France's build-up. France had 60%-plus of the ball, but their creation was modest all campaign, as Zidane himself admitted.
Now Mbappé, Dembélé and Thuram are all out, so France go with a false nine. That removes the central route that Scalvini and Bastoni already smothered in Paris. France's real threat is Olise cutting in and his set-piece delivery, most likely after the break, as when France reshaped at half-time in Paris. Italy lose Kean, but their ways of making chances stay: early balls behind France's replacement full-backs, the press and Kayode's long throws.
I expect a cagey, low-scoring first half with France on the ball and Italy in a mid block. A point suits Italy, with Belgium to come next, and France have no box striker to break a deep block. That's why I'm siding with Italy at home, with a draw also on my side.
