Three matches where the gap between the sides is shown by like-for-like content rather than by the table or the badge. Eczacibasi have been ruthless against everyone outside the very top, Brighton's home volume meets a Brentford side missing its creators, and Aras have consistently outperformed Ilbank against the same opponents. In each case the weaker side's best route is narrow and has been failing recently.
Eczacibasi v Goztepe: since early October Eczacibasi have not dropped a set to a non-top opponent, winning those sets mostly by eight to ten points. Goztepe are on a good run, but against strong opposition they have taken one set in six matches, and their reception cracked against the best server they have faced. Their opposite role is still unsettled and they start slowly. On common opponents, Eczacibasi swept Besiktas and Ilbank while Goztepe needed tight sets at Besiktas and lost at Ilbank. I expect Eczacibasi's serve and block to pull every set away, so I'm backing them to win in straight sets.
Brighton v Brentford: at home Brighton hold the ball and flood the wide areas and half-spaces, with seventeen shots against both Palace and Arsenal and only one home league goal conceded in four. Their back line has kept clean sheets at City and Getafe with the same right-back patch. Brentford are missing Carvalho, Dasilva, Milambo and Henry, so their attack narrows to long balls to Thiago, long throws and corners. Brighton's Thursday trip is the question, but Hurzeler rotated, keeping Ayari, Kostoulas and Chema out of the XI and limiting Dunk and Gross. A draw is the realistic risk with Brentford's away habit, so I'm siding with Brighton with the draw covered.
Aras Kargo v Ilbank: Aras did better than Ilbank against five of six common opponents, including winning at Nilufer while Ilbank lost at home to them in straight sets. Ilbank have not won on the road and come in off two straight-set defeats. Aras often start slowly, but they have come back from two sets down against Galatasaray and at Nilufer, and they have the extra day of rest. Their late-set closing through Kalandadze and May survives a dropped first set, which is exactly the route Ilbank need. That's why I'm on Aras to win the match.
