Two favourites at home against compact blocks, and they play out in different ways. In Barcelos, Porto's league pattern of building a lead late meets a Gil Vicente attack that rarely creates anything outside penalties. In Dortmund, a Frankfurt side that tightened up after a heavy defeat meets a Dortmund team that controls games rather than blowing them open.
Gil Vicente vs Porto first. Farioli's Porto are eight from eight in the league, with six of those wins by two goals or more. The pattern is consistent: they control the ball, their expected goals climb after the break, and the bench finishes the job. Borja Sainz and Pietuszewski have both scored as substitutes and are available again. Gil Vicente will drop into a block, as they did against Benfica and Braga, and that is the setting where Porto have won most comfortably, including a 2-0 at this ground under the same two coaches.
Gil's problem is going forward. They have eight league goals in eight games, three of them penalties, and Hernandez, their penalty taker and main creator, is a doubt. Their back line is settled and has won its last two games, so I expect a slow first hour. Porto played PSV four days ago and Farioli admits fitness is uneven. Gomes is out on the left, but Pepe is still delivering.
The flow should be a quiet first half and then Porto's second wave. Once Porto score, Gil have to open up, and that is when the margin comes, as it did at Casa Pia when 1-1 at the break became 4-1. That's why I'm backing Porto to win by more than one.
Dortmund vs Frankfurt looks like a shootout on paper, but this week it does not set up that way. After the 0-6 at Leipzig, Hutter switched to a compact 4-4-2 and beat Koln 1-0 while allowing very little. He has said the plan is to defend as a unit. Kovac's Dortmund give up about one expected goal and roughly three shots on target a game, with four goals conceded in six league matches.
Dortmund also find blocks hard to break early: Bremen held them goalless until the 80th minute, and Union held on for 0-0. With only four days since Baku and a cup tie on Tuesday, a Dortmund lead is more likely to be managed than pushed. Schlotterbeck, Anton, Nmecha and Veerman all played in Baku, so the defensive core is intact.
For this match to turn wild, Dortmund need an early goal and Frankfurt then need two of their own against that defence. Without an early goal, it looks like a Dortmund win by one or two, with goals arriving after the hour. I'm siding with a controlled, lower-scoring game in Dortmund.
