Norwich's losing run had a clear cause, and that cause is missing at Pride Park. Their attack dried up against the three tightest defences they met and came back to life against weaker ones. Derby are the weakest defence on that list, and they have been patched together in exactly the areas Norwich like to attack. Derby's own route to a result depends on an early goal they rarely produce.
Sort Norwich's recent attacking by the defence they faced and the pattern is plain. Against Swansea, Portsmouth and Southampton, all organised blocks, they barely created anything. Against Charlton and Watford they created plenty and scored three both times. Derby have been giving up close to two expected goals a game over their last ten.
The key matchup is Kvistgaarden dropping in to link play against Derby's centre-backs. With Forsyth, Langas, Cashin and probably Clarke unavailable, the likely pairing is a converted right-back next to a free agent. A winger is expected at left-back, facing Brooks and the overlapping Stacey. In front of them, Travis is out and Ozoh limped off against Millwall, so the screen in midfield is thin against a side that keeps 55 to 60 percent of the ball.
Derby will come out hard with the crowd behind them and go direct to Morris. That opening spell, plus set pieces, is their best chance. But they have scored just twice in their last four home games and average about one expected goal a match. Their defending has faded late before, and Norwich's chances in their wins mostly came after half-time.
Norwich haven't drawn a game all season, and this setup suits their way of attacking. That's why I'm siding with Norwich to win at Pride Park.
