Crystal Palace are favoured on home ground, name and Hoffenheim's long injury list, but their own attack is the thinnest unit on the pitch. Most of Hoffenheim's missing defenders were already out when they beat Lyon and Leverkusen. In Glasgow, Celtic must chase a first point, and both defences have been leaking goals from very little.
Palace v Hoffenheim. Under Sage, Palace sit low in a back three and wait to break. In their recent games they have managed 2, 4, 17, 8 and 5 shots, and their xG has been under 0.8 in four of the last five. Sarr is out, and Sage admits the attack hasn't worked as planned. Hoffenheim press and play two strikers, with 14 to 21 shots in every recent game, including away at Gladbach and Bremen. Against Lyon, the common opponent, Hoffenheim won 3-0 and Palace lost there.
Palace's real threat is Mateta, who is fresh and available in Europe despite his domestic ban, up against Kabak and Machida. Gendrey's injury means a stand-in right-back. Ilzer himself expects an early Palace surge. Hoffenheim have lost Hlozek, but Kramaric's link play, Prass back in midfield and set-piece volume remain. Palace's realistic way to win is one early goal and a block that holds, so a draw is a real branch. That's why I'm siding with Hoffenheim to avoid defeat.
Celtic v Besiktas. Celtic have scored in all three Europa League games, but they have conceded two or more in each of them and in both recent league games, often from low xG. On zero points at home they have to commit numbers. Their corners, Baur's delivery and arriving centre-backs go against a Besiktas back line with Akdag suspended and changes promised by Italiano before Sunday. Besiktas's front line of Vlahovic, Olaitan and Trossard was at its best in open games like the one at Hoffenheim, and a chasing Celtic gives them that space. With Kokcu only on the bench, Besiktas are sturdier in midfield but not built to shut a game down. I expect goals at both ends.
