In both of these matches, each side's main attacking route runs straight into the unit that is broken on the other side this week. At Selhurst Park, Palace's direct attack meets a patched Hoffenheim back line, and Hoffenheim's volume meets a Palace back three missing two regulars. In Herning, Ajax's fit strikers face a backup keeper and a rebuilt defence, while Midtjylland's direct play targets an Ajax midfield missing its shield and its creator. Neither match sets up as a tight, low-chance game.
Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim. Mateta's ban only covers domestic games, so Palace's main striker is available here. With Pino beside him and wing-back crosses, he is up against a Hoffenheim defence without Gendrey (fractured fibula), Hranac and Hajdari, with Coufal doubtful and a stand-in on the right. At the other end, Hoffenheim shoot a lot, and Palace are without Riad and Tomiyasu at the back. Neither keeper has been reliable in this competition: Baumann has saved half of the shots on target he has faced, and Palace's keeper has stopped one of six in away European games. Palace have scored in all three of their Europa League games. Five of the six European games involving these two clubs produced plenty of goals, and both clubs need the win. I'm with goals flowing at both ends here.
Midtjylland vs Ajax. Midtjylland are without centre-backs Erlic and Jensen, and their first-choice keeper is ill. That leaves Bakker in goal. He makes plenty of saves, but he faces a lot of shots and has conceded in every game. Ajax's finishing pair, Arokodare and Ouazane, are both fit. Ajax's midfield is the problem: Amrabat and Brandt did not travel, Bissouma is not eligible, and Blind, just back from injury, is set to cover the holding role. Midtjylland go long to two strikers and tend to grow after the break as their substitutes come on. Ajax's recent clean sheets were both at home, and they conceded in three of their four latest away games. Midtjylland have scored in nine of their last ten. I'm siding with both teams getting on the scoresheet.
