Both of these matches are about one side owning the ball and the other side's defence being stretched. In each, the team with the bigger shot volume meets a back line that is short of bodies, and the question is whether the volume turns into goals.
Como at home is a possession side: around sixty percent of the ball, nearly nineteen shots and more than six on target per game over its last ten, with a 3-1 win at Fiorentina even without two of its forwards. Manchester United arrive with four defenders unavailable, including a suspended starter, and two midfielders out. Their last three away games produced under one expected goal each, so their counter threat has been thin. Como also concede real chances, so a draw is a live result here. That's why I'm siding with Como at home.
Levante against Athletic Bilbao is a different shape. Levante are a leaky home side: they have allowed about two goals a game over their last twenty and over two expected goals against in the games with stats, while facing more shots than they take. Athletic take more shots and concede far less. Their attack is thinned by absences up front and the recent 0-0 at Valencia shows how it can stall, but the content gap points to Athletic finding the decisive goal. That's why I'm on Athletic away.
