Two very different knockout settings, one common thread: both sides have to come out and play. The Open Cup final pairs two attack-minded MLS sides who keep scoring and keep conceding, while the Libertadores second leg pits a home side protecting an aggregate lead against a visitor who must open the game.
Columbus against St. Louis: St. Louis average close to three goals a game over their last ten and own the ball, but allow a lot of shots. Columbus score in nearly every match and have conceded in seven of their last ten. Columbus are missing their right back, and St. Louis are without two midfielders and a cup-tied striker, which thins their control and makes the game more transitional. Both coaches talk discipline, yet the numbers point to chances at both ends. That's why I'm expecting both teams to find the net.
Palmeiras against Fluminense: Palmeiras won the first leg away and at home have won their recent games with almost nothing conceded, with clean sheets in seven of their last ten. Fluminense are missing their main forward options and are weak on the road. Palmeiras can concede the ball, hold a compact back three and strike on the counter, as they did in the first leg with little possession. That's why I'm siding with Palmeiras to win this match.
