Suwon FC against Ansan is a home side that controls games and concedes very little, meeting an away side whose defence has cracked early against the better teams it has faced. Colorado against Chicago is two back lines that are both unsettled for this match, with a home side that has to chase a result. In the first match the question is how big the gap gets. In the second it is how open the game stays once the first goal goes in.
Suwon FC have had 59 to 66 percent of the ball in their last three games and have conceded only 0.7 goals per game over their last ten, with just 11 conceded in 13 home league games. Ansan are much more competitive away than at home, but they have conceded two or more in seven of their last ten. Against strong opposition the block has given way early: they were two down at half-time both at Suwon Bluewings and at Cheonan.
The key matchup is Suwon FC's wide play and set pieces against an Ansan back line that looks thin, with Yeon Je-min flagged on the latest squad list. Prijo is back after injury, and more minutes from him would fix Suwon FC's problem of getting shots on target. Ansan's way back into games is their bench forwards, Ryu Seung-wan and Kim In-sung, coming on after the hour. Seoul E-Land's loss turns this into a promotion chance that Suwon FC have to take. I expect an early lead and pressure that keeps building, so I'm backing Suwon FC to win clearly.
In Denver, Chicago are a high-volume possession side under Berhalter. They attack down the left through Bamba and Gutman and aim crosses at the far post, which is how both goals against Orlando came. They also leave space behind their back line, and they have conceded 16 in their last ten. Colorado lose Thompson at right-back to a red card and Atencio from the holding role to suspension, and both played in midweek. That puts Chicago's best route straight onto the changed side of Colorado's defence, with no screen in front of it.
Colorado need the win to settle their playoff place, so they cannot sit on a draw. Whittaker's runs into the space behind Chicago's full-backs give them a real route of their own. Both sides are on three days' rest and Chicago have travelled to altitude, so the second half should loosen up. Whoever scores first, the other side has to come out. That's why I'm expecting goals at both ends in this one.
