On the season these two Chiba sides are close to the same team, with near-identical net ratings over their last ten. The gap the market sees comes mostly from the Jets' home court and their names, and the Jets have struggled at home lately. What actually separates the current casts is size: the Jets have no answer for two foreign bigs while Costello is out, and Altiri play exactly that.
The Jets win through three-point volume, with Togashi running the show and Maye inside, and by drawing free throws. They lose when they give up the glass, and with this frontcourt they have: out-rebounded 28-46 by Toyama and 27-45 by Tokyo SR. Altiri play Alex Davis and Dererk Pardon together, won the boards 45-27 at Akita, and score through Newbill and a bench of shooters.
The key matchup is Davis and Pardon against Maye and Nyika Williams on the glass. That is where the extra possessions come from. The Jets' best counter is Togashi's volume from deep and their ability to get to the line against an Altiri defence that fouls a lot.
On the lineup, Randolph is eligible to return after missing the whole season, but he replaces Gill as a wing, so he adds a scorer, not size. Costello is still on the injury list. Altiri's long-term absences are already part of every game they have played this season, and their core all played their last match.
Altiri tend to start fast and lead in the first half, and the Jets usually come back in the second. If Altiri keep their turnovers under control, the rebounding gap should carry that lead through the fourth quarter. That's why I'm siding with Altiri Chiba to win this derby on the road.
