Vancouver come to Montreal needing a single point, and Montreal arrive with an attack that has barely threatened anyone for weeks. Vancouver should control the ball and the territory. The real question is not who controls the game but whether Montreal can create even one chance of real quality. On recent evidence, and with fresh absences, that looks unlikely.
Montreal's chance creation has dried up. In four of their last five league games they produced 0.62 xG or less and two shots on target or fewer. The goals they did score came from very little, like Rios in the 90th minute at New York. Owusu, their top scorer, is officially out, and Sealy, who played in late October, has now joined him on the official absence list. That takes away two of the few players who could hurt a defence directly.
Vancouver's away defence is one of the best in the league, conceding 18 in 16 road games, and it built that record against stronger home attacks than this one. With a point enough to secure their seeding, Vancouver have no reason to throw players forward once they lead. Losing Cubas has made their midfield leakier, but that leak was measured against San Diego and Seattle, not a side creating this little.
At the other end, Montreal's back line is patched up and a stand-in goalkeeper is likely, so White and Gauld from wide could make a narrow lead a comfortable one. I see either a tight one-goal game or a Vancouver win that keeps getting bigger, and in both Montreal stay off the scoresheet.
That's why I'm backing Montreal to fail to score in a game where only one side finds the net.
