Both of these matches hinge on a back line that has been broken this week. Cagliari are missing three senior defenders and both forwards who started their last game. Mainz lose two back-line starters to suspension on top of an injury, just as Bayern's front unit arrives together and in form.
Cagliari v Frosinone. Cagliari under Pisacane are a reactive side. They won at Udinese on five shots, but at home they barely create: three shots against Bologna and four against Juventus. The club confirmed at the eve press conference that Mina and Aurelio are out and Obert is suspended, and a midfielder is expected to fill in at centre-back. Nzola and Fadera were both hurt at Lazio, so the forwards who made the last goals are gone too.
Frosinone hold the ball away from home: 56 percent at Genoa and 54 at Atalanta, with 26 and 24 shots. Losing Raimondo costs them a finisher, but the creators, Schmid, Ghedjemis, Kvernadze and Calò, are all there, and Birligea scored twice off the bench against Lecce. If Frosinone score first, Cagliari have to chase with very little up front. That's why I'm siding with Frosinone, with the draw covered.
Mainz v Bayern. Posch and Mwene are suspended and Kohr is still out, so Fischer's back five is being patched together after conceding nine in eight days. At Elversberg they were three down by half-time after a free kick through the wall and a corner they couldn't clear. Bayern's missing players are attacking depth. Kane, Olise, Karl, Laimer and Kimmich all started together in the win at Atletico four days ago, and Neuer is in goal.
Mainz will sit deep and look for crosses and set pieces. Once Bayern break through, Mainz have to open up, and Laimer's and Olise's transitions punish exactly that. That's why I'm with Bayern to win by a clear margin.
