Cagliari will try to pass through the first press and release runners beyond it. Frosinone's man pressure and wide outlets can turn the same area into repeated attacks in the other direction. A first goal will change the space available on both flanks, and the response after that goal matters as much as the opener. The decisive chance looks likely to come from a recycled wide ball or a separate central arrival.
Winks offers Cagliari a way through pressure, with Maldini and Mendy ready to run beyond him. Frosinone can send Ghedjemis and Kvernadze at Cagliari's reshaped flanks, then find Bîrligea or Schmid centrally. They kept making chances against Torino after Raimondo left injured, with two different finishers converting. Raimondo and Terzić are absent from Frosinone's current squad, but those wide creators and Bîrligea remain.
Cagliari's latest opener came from Fadera finding Nzola; both played at Lazio and have since been ruled out. Obert also played there before his dismissal and is suspended, while Mina and Aurelio are unavailable. Frosinone's wide pressure has a clearer route to a follow-up finish against that altered defence than Cagliari's current outlet has to sustained answers. I'm backing Frosinone to win.
