Two matches where the shot maps point clearly at one side. In both, the team that creates more is facing a back line that is already short of bodies, and the table position backs that up.
Brest: they shoot far more than their opponents and make better chances, about 18 shots a game against 11 conceded. Nice keep the ball but turn it into very little, with two goals in their last five away games. Nice are missing three defenders, and that shortage was already there for their last couple of games, so it is a continuing problem. Brest have drawn too often because finishing swings, but the volume should find a goal at home. That's why I'm siding with Brest, with the draw refunded.
Bolton v Middlesbrough: Middlesbrough are third and Bolton fifteenth, and the shot, on-target and chance-quality numbers all lean towards the visitors. They keep the ball and pile up shots, while Bolton sit deep and hope for a counter or set piece. Middlesbrough's missing players, including a centre-back and two forwards, were also out last time, so the recent numbers already include them. Their finishing has lagged, but the control is real. That's why I'm siding with Middlesbrough to win.
