Betis bring back the first eleven they rested at the weekend, against a Feyenoord side that dominates at home in the Netherlands but creates little against European teams that keep the ball. Feyenoord's left side is patched up, and their attacking bench has been stripped down to teenagers. The likely shape is Betis with the ball and Feyenoord looking for one quick break. The final half hour, when the benches come in, is where the gap between the squads is widest.
Betis under Pellegrini hold the ball through Isco and Roca, with Antony and Abde taking on full-backs one against one and Parrott leading the line. Against Porto they had the better of the chances and won it late through their substitutes. The heavy defeat at Barcelona came from a rotated side with a red card, not from this eleven.
Feyenoord under van Bronckhorst are a different team in Europe. They hit seven and five at home in the league, but at Barcelona they had little more than a quarter of the ball and created almost nothing. At home to Como they won on very few chances, with the decisive goal a deflected own goal. Their attacking route is the right side, with Hadj Moussa cutting inside and Read overlapping, aimed at the space behind Fran Garcia.
The key duel is Antony against Feyenoord's left side. Smal and Bos are both out, so a centre-back is likely to play there. Antony's dribbles and cut-backs produced the equaliser and the penalty against Porto. In midfield, Feyenoord lose the ball under pressure, and that feeds Betis's game.
The absences matter most late on. Nelson, van Persie and Borges are all out for Feyenoord, so their attacking options from the bench are a handful of youngsters. Betis can bring on Lo Celso, Ceballos, Fornals and Riquelme. Feyenoord have conceded two or more in six of their last ten games.
The first half may be tight, as it was against Porto. If Betis lead after an hour, their bench makes a second goal more likely than an equaliser. That's why I'm siding with Betis to win this one clearly.
