Roma's pressure can trap Cagliari's first pass and keep attacks alive after an initial clearance. Cagliari's compact defence needs that first outlet to become a useful counter. Dortmund should control more of the ball against Bremen, whose narrow block has slowed the first clean shot in this matchup. Bremen can also turn a regain or restart into a direct reply.
Winks left Cagliari's Bologna match at half-time and is now out; their possession after that change produced little clean shooting. Roma's Soulé and Malen combination and Balerdi's arrival at restarts have created separate finishes with the club's existing absences already in place. Roma can press the weakened outlet, recycle the second ball and keep testing the box as Cagliari stretch to respond. That's why I'm siding with Roma to build a clear margin.
Dortmund created a large shot total in the earlier meeting, yet Bremen kept the opening spell crowded and found routes through a high regain and a restart. Dortmund's Bensebaini now misses this cup match after playing Frankfurt, while Bremen's Füllkrug, Weiser and Hein all played against Mainz; any rotation is still unconfirmed. Dortmund can raise the speed with its later runners, but Bremen's compact first contact and direct response can keep the result close. That's why I'm siding with Werder Bremen.
