Two Japanese matches where the side at home is built to win them in a certain way, and the opponent's way of playing helps them. In Tokyo, a rested and settled defence meets a Kashima back line that played in Thailand two days earlier. In Niigata, a compact counter-attacking leader hosts the league's leakiest defence, a team that wants the ball. Neither match looks open. Both should tilt late, or turn on one transition.
FC Tokyo v Kashima: FC Tokyo's back four of Ishihara, Scholz, Inamura and Bangnagande has not changed through eight straight league clean sheets. None of their last six league opponents got past an xG of 1.29. Kashima attack in volume, with crosses from the right, lots of corners and a fresh front two in Suzuki and Ceara, who barely played at Buriram. That is their best route, and Scholz and Inamura have shut down that type of attacker all autumn.
The bigger matchup is at the other end. Chida, Tsukui, Motosuna, Misao and Hayashi all played 90 minutes in Thailand, and this is their third game in eight days. FC Tokyo have had a full week off, and their goals come after the hour, when Gomez, Nagakura, Omori and Sato come off the bench. Kashima have conceded 14 in six J1 away games. The long-term absences on both sides are old and already part of how both teams play. Expect a tight first half, then FC Tokyo's fresh legs against tired defenders after 60 minutes. The head-to-head has been tight and low-scoring, so a draw is the real danger. That's why I'm siding with FC Tokyo, with the draw covered.
Albirex Niigata v Imabari: Niigata top the table without dominating games. They usually have about 40% of the ball, defend in a compact block and score from regains and set moments. Imabari under Kuboyama are the opposite: a possession side with wing-backs pushed high, Umeki wide and Edigar Junio up front. They have conceded 31, the most in the league, including four at home to Sapporo four days ago, and they gave up 22 shots at Tokushima.
So Imabari should have the ball while Niigata wait to break into the space behind those wing-backs, which is how Niigata win. Imabari's own scoring is thin: five goals in four away games under their new coach, nothing from 13 shots last time out, and their main striker came off at half-time. Niigata's back line may be reshuffled after Geria and Funaki both came off early at Kofu, and Arai was already missing when they won there. Rain is forecast, which slows a passing build-up. Every Niigata win this season has been by one goal, so a draw is the main danger here too. I'm backing Niigata at home with the draw covered.
