Al Sadd sit bottom of the group but are scoring freely at home, while Al Ahli arrive off a 1-6 defeat. In this competition the roles look different: Sadd have not controlled games against good sides, and Ahli have already won away by sitting deep and breaking. In Spain, Coruna's problem is finishing, not defending, and they meet an Osasuna side whose back line keeps giving up chances away from home.
Al Sadd vs Al Ahli. In the ACL, Lucescu's Sadd had 45% of the ball and 2 shots on target at home to Hilal, who created far more, and 34% at Qadsiah. They have one goal in three ACL games. At home they also let good sides shoot: Hilal had 17 shots there and Duhail 22. Ahli's away role in this competition fits that picture. They won 3-1 at Al Wasl with 37% possession and gave Gharafa almost nothing at home.
The 1-6 has a clear cause. Ahli's keeper was sent off after 22 minutes and three of the goals were penalties. Mendy is expected back in goal, which closes that route. Sadd need the win, so they should carry the ball and push up after the break. That opens the wide spaces Ahli's runners and Galeno off the bench have already used. Sadd's best path is an early Afif or Firmino goal and then a deep block, but their ACL output against good sides has been too thin to lean on. That's why I'm siding with Al Ahli, with a draw also covered.
Coruna vs Osasuna. Coruna have not allowed more than about one and a half expected goals in any league game with stats, and they conceded exactly one in five of those six. They drop points because their chances do not go in. Even without Aubameyang and Eddahchouri they put five shots on target at Levante and at Atletico. Osasuna's back four faced seven shots on target in three of their last four away league games, including Arrasate's only away game so far, at Sevilla.
The absences are not new. Coruna's strikers, Casado and Ede were already missing in the recent games, and so were Osasuna's three. Osasuna will press early, as they did at Sevilla, but that press faded after about twenty minutes. After that, Coruna's wingers Yeremay, Luismi Cruz and Soriano should take over, and Osasuna's main hope becomes Budimir from crosses and penalties. That's why I'm siding with Coruna at home, with a draw also covered.
