Two matches where one side should control the ball and the shot count against an opponent that is short of answers.
PSG against Lyon: PSG take most of the possession at home and have the clearly bigger chance gap over their last ten games, about 22 shots a game to Lyon's 13. Lyon arrive short of forwards and defenders, with a midfielder suspended after a red card, and were heavily outshot in their last away game. PSG have their own injuries, with Kvaratskhelia, Dembele and Marquinhos hurt, but that hits finishing and centre-back depth more than the volume of chances. I expect sustained pressure and a margin of more than one goal. That's why I'm siding with PSG to win by a clear margin.
Al Qadsiah against Al-Sadd: Qadsiah are a possession side with about fourteen shots and over two expected goals a game, and Sadd concede around two per game. Sadd, with no points yet and a new coach, have to open up, and their attack scores freely against average sides, so goals should arrive at both ends. Qadsiah's defence has leaked against good attackers, most recently against Hilal. That's why I'm siding with goals in this one.
