Ajax can make Atalanta's reshaped back line defend repeated high recoveries and corners. Atalanta have wide outlets of their own if the first pass survives the press. The two sides can both reach the box, but the quality of the first defensive exit looks central to the match. A close second half could still bring fresh supply from either bench.
Ajax generated high regains, shots on goal and corner second contacts against Groningen with their current attacking group. Atalanta travel without Kolašinac after his early exit against Milan and have a thin senior central defence, while Elmas is in the squad despite an older supplier suspension flag. Ajax's own listed absences were already present against Groningen, when Brandt and Klaassen helped sustain the attack. Atalanta can use Bellanova and Zalewski wide, but Ajax's pressure gives them repeated access to a makeshift central pairing. That's why I'm siding with Ajax to win.
