[2026–27 Bundesliga] Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart preview Kick-off: October 31, 14:30 UTC
Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s home winning run and VfB Stuttgart’s position near the bottom of the table point to a clear gap between the sides. But Stuttgart’s pressing could shape the first half, while the difference in their minutes played in the cup may matter after the break.
1. Match overview and team form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen are fourth and have won all five of their recent home matches in official competitions. That run includes league, cup and Europa League games. The match against Nürnberg under Carles Martinez offers a clue to today’s starting line-up. Leverkusen struggled against their opponents’ man-marking press in the first half, with García losing the ball in possession before they went in 2–1 down. Fernandes, Maza and Schick came on at half-time, changing the team’s positioning and opening up the attack. Leverkusen turned the match around to win 5–2 (Bayer 04 Leverkusen, October 29). The Bundesliga’s official website predicted all three would start today (Bundesliga official website, October 31).
Repeating that second-half attacking display will require Leverkusen to solve a few other problems. Diaby is out with a thigh injury, while Terrier, Kofane and Ben Seghir are also unavailable. With fewer runs into the space behind the defence without Diaby, Schick’s movement in the box, the link-up between Maza and Tillman, and García’s set pieces will matter more. The Nürnberg match showed one route to goal, when Tapsoba headed home from a García corner. At the back, Badé and Dué are out, so Quansah is expected to fill in at right-back. The new combination will be tested from its first pass under pressure.
VfB Stuttgart are 15th, but they can still create chances. They had 24 shots away to Hamburg but failed to score, and took the lead against Borussia Mönchengladbach before failing to add to it or manage the game. Against Atlético Madrid, though, they won the ball high up the pitch and Leveling scored the opener. Jan Oblak said the press made it difficult to play the ball forward in the first half (Teve, match report, October 21). Hoeness needs his side to turn that pressure into goals and then stay in control of the game.
Stiller’s adductor injury makes that task harder (Fussball Transfers, October 29). Karazor and Prömel are the likeliest options to take over the first pass from the back. Hoeness praised Karazor’s adjusted role in the second half of the cup match, but there is little evidence so far that he can match Stiller’s forward passing (VfB, October 30). Both teams play three days after their cup matches, and Bayer 04 Leverkusen managed the minutes of their first-choice attackers.
2. Match-up analysis
The first key battle is Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s build-up against VfB Stuttgart’s high press. Nürnberg scored after cutting out a pass from García, and Stuttgart won the ball in Atlético Madrid’s half before scoring. With Badé out and Quansah expected to move across to right-back, Stuttgart could target a similar area today. If their press works early, Leverkusen may have to commit more players forward while trailing. They have conceded late in a similar situation before, when pushing for an equaliser away to Hoffenheim.
If Leverkusen play through the first press, Maza and Tillman can receive the ball behind Stuttgart’s midfield and link up with Schick. The away side also have to press with the same intensity just three days after spending a long spell on the attack in the cup. Of Leverkusen’s expected starting attackers, Fernandes, Moreira, Maza, Tillman and Schick each played only 45 minutes in the cup. Stuttgart’s Undav, Demirović, El Khannouss, Prömel and Mittelstädt played almost the full match against Paderborn. As the press loses intensity, Leverkusen should find more chances to move forward through the attacking midfielders.
The second battle is how Stuttgart build their attacks after winning the ball back. Without Stiller, Karazor and Prömel will face pressure from Leverkusen’s attacking midfielders, and a quick turnover will not necessarily lead to a settled attack. Undav also criticised the team for forcing the ball forward instead of playing their way through (VfB, October 30). That would increase the reliance on El Khannouss and Führich pushing forward, and on Demirović’s movement in the box. Stuttgart’s defence will also have to watch García’s corners and Tapsoba’s headers throughout the match, especially with Zagadou out.
3. Final assessment and conclusion
The market favours the home side, reflecting the gap in the table and Leverkusen’s perfect home record. We agree with that lean, while placing more weight on the cup minutes when judging the margin. Leverkusen can start with the attacking combination that worked after the break, while Stuttgart’s main pressing players logged heavy minutes in the cup. If they fall behind, Stuttgart will also have to find a way forward without Stiller.
Stuttgart have a clear route to scoring through their first-half press. But they need to sustain it after the break and protect a lead to win away. If Leverkusen withstand the pressure, Maza and Tillman’s link-up and their set pieces could give them control. Diaby’s absence limits the pace of their runs in behind, so we do not expect the gap to keep growing. This view would be less convincing if Hoeness rests the players who logged heavy cup minutes and keeps the press fresh in the second half. Leverkusen could concede once in the first half, then take the lead after the break and win by two goals. We expect both teams to score.
[Final picks · by market · Betman market] Full-time result: Home win. Schick, Maza and Tillman can gain the upper hand after the break, with García’s set pieces offering another route. Stuttgart’s problems managing a lead and finishing chances without Stiller remain. Handicap -1: Home win. The difference in cup minutes could sap Stuttgart’s pressing intensity after 60 minutes. If they fall behind and push forward, they may leave space behind the defence. Handicap -2: Draw. Diaby’s absence could slow Leverkusen’s pursuit of more goals, and Stuttgart still have a path to score through their first-half press. There is little to support a three-goal margin. Over/Under 3.5: Over. Leverkusen’s set pieces and second-half goals from midfield, along with a first-half goal from Stuttgart’s press, could all feature in the same match.
