Two Serie A matches decided by how each back line meets the attack in front of it. At San Siro, Milan's defensive unit is the same one that shut out Udinese, and it faces a Bologna attack missing its main wide creator and its striker. In Monza, both teams come in with gaps in central defence, and each has a scoring route that runs straight at those gaps.
Milan vs Bologna: Amorim's Milan are unbeaten in the league and have won all three home games, scoring eight and conceding two. Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic and Diawara started the win at Udinese and allowed only 0.42 xG, so the back line is not new for this match. Bologna made 0.90 and 0.29 xG against Inter and Napoli, and now Orsolini and Piccoli are out.
Milan are expected to rotate in midfield, with Musah, Jashari and Cisse in and Modric and Pulisic on the bench. That makes the build-up slower against Bologna's five-man shape. But Jashari stays as the link, and the two stars are there for the last half hour. Bologna's ways in are Miranda's crosses, set pieces and penalties, which are single moments rather than sustained pressure.
A tight first half is likely, and Milan's bench should matter after the hour. That's why I'm siding with Milan, on a line that protects a draw.
Monza vs Napoli: Napoli have lost Buongiorno, Badiashile and Spinazzola from their defence, and Di Lorenzo is reported rested, so the right side and the centre are reshuffled. Monza have scored in each of their last ten matches through Varela's counters. He has scored in three of their last four league games. Juric's man-to-man press on Lobotka adds a turnover route against a first line that hasn't played together.
At the other end, Monza are without Ziolkowski and Maye and have conceded 18 in eight league games. Napoli's box arrivals from McTominay and Anguissa, plus their corners and crosses, attack a man-marking back three where one lost duel opens the box. Napoli have also kept conceding after taking the lead, and those goals came late from crosses and corners.
The first half may be slow, as Napoli's often are. Whoever scores first, the second half should open up, with Monza breaking or Napoli pushing numbers forward. That's why I expect goals at both ends.
