Napoli's recent losses tell a story about results, not about the football they have been playing. They out-created both Venezia and Villarreal and lost on finishing and goalkeeping. Bodø/Glimt come to Naples with their midfield thinned and an away record against strong sides that has shown very little. In Stuttgart, meanwhile, both sides attack patched-up defences, which points to an open game rather than one controlled by either team.
Napoli under Allegri are a possession-and-volume side against anyone below the elite. At Venezia they had 29 shots and lost 0-1, with a missed penalty and the keeper having a big night. At Villarreal they led on chances too, but a build-up error and a bad goalkeeping night turned it. Lobotka, De Bruyne, McTominay and Højlund are all available. Their absences are depth out wide and at centre-back.
Bodø are a fierce pressing team on their own artificial turf, and that's how they beat Dortmund. Away to an elite side it has not carried over: at Bayern they had a third of the ball and three shots. Now Evjen and Riisnaes are both out of midfield, Mikkelsen is out up front and Blomberg is a doubt. That leaves fewer legs for the press and fewer finishers for the counter.
Expect Napoli to camp in Bodø's half with long spells of pressure and plenty of corners, with McTominay arriving in the box and Højlund as the target. Bodø's route is an early turnover from their press, but at reduced strength it is a narrower route. That's why I'm siding with Napoli.
In Stuttgart, Hoeness's man-to-man press and Stiller's supply to Demirović and Undav meet an Atlético build-up without Cristian Romero. Simeone's side are no low block this season. They keep the ball and score late through a deep bench, and they have scored in nine of their last ten.
The key is at the back. Stuttgart are without Zagadou and Stergiou, and Al-Dakhil is reported out, so Jeltsch and Chabot have to cover everything Álvarez and Lee run into behind the press. Stuttgart already give up plenty of chances in the league. Atlético conceded to every strong opponent they have faced this season.
The game should open up after the hour, when the press tires and Atlético's bench comes on. Each side has a way to score that doesn't depend on the other side's weakness. That's why I'm expecting goals at both ends.
