In Izmir, Turkey's group results are far worse than their play. They create about as much as their opponents but finish poorly, and their back line keeps leaking. Belgium hand over the ball and win through fast, high-quality forward passing. In Tirana, Finland keep possession without creating anything, and Albania press and get runners into the box. Both matches turn on whether one side's routine can beat the other's weak point.
Turkey v Belgium. In four group games Turkey scored 2 and conceded 11, yet their expected goals are roughly level with their opponents'. In Liege they had 23 shots and lost 0-3. Belgium under van Bommel average under half the ball and concede plenty of shots, but De Bruyne, Doku, Lukebakio and De Ketelaere break quickly. De Bruyne is back from suspension. He scored twice against Turkey in October.
The lineup changes push this match open. Turkey are without Bardakcı and Müldür, so Demiral plays next to a new partner. The new coach, Yalçın, says he will play a real centre-forward, with Kökçü, Çalhanoğlu and Güler behind him. Lammens, in Belgium's goal, had a shaky weekend at club level. Both sides need three points. When Turkey trail they pour forward, as they did in Liege, and that hands Belgium's runners space. I expect goals at both ends, so I'm on the open, goal-heavy side of this one.
Albania v Finland. Finland under Friis hold around six-tenths of the ball. Against everyone in the group except San Marino, though, they have barely created, and they have scored no open-play goals. Both of their goals in the October win over Albania were Leo Walta free kicks against a substitute keeper. Even with ten men for most of that match, Albania had four times as many shots inside the box.
This time Albania have eleven men, a full squad and their first-choice keeper Berisha back. Asllani's delivery and Manaj's runs should keep producing box chances against a possession side. Finland have to chase the win, and that feeds Albania's pressing and counters. I expect Albania to strike early with the home crowd behind them and to manage the game from there. That's why I'm siding with Albania.
