Toyama and Ibaraki meet as two teams whose numbers look very different by venue. Ibaraki's size controls the glass and slows games down, especially on the road. Toyama make their living from pressure and free throws, not shot-making, and their home games have been low-scoring. With both rotations on their third game in about five days, this sets up as a half-court grind.
Ibaraki start Soares, Delaney and Law together, and that frontcourt wins the boards (43-27 against Osaka, 44-36 at Alvark). Their four road games finished at 143, 163, 156 and 135. Their two recent home shootouts are what pull their overall numbers up, and their road three-point shooting has been far colder than at home.
Toyama shoot 30.6% from three and have struggled to finish inside. They score 73.8 points a game at home, and four of their five home games stayed well short of the higher totals they reached on the road. They also lose the glass, so Ibaraki's size takes away their second chances instead of adding possessions.
Toyama's best way to speed things up is their turnover forcing and their trips to the line, which reached 36 free throws against Shimane. But Ibaraki have tightened up during their four-game win run, conceding only 11 to 22 free throws a game. No absences are listed for either side. Simms was pictured going down against Shimane, but there is no report on his status.
The likely flow: Ibaraki start well on the boards, Toyama's pressure keeps it close through the middle quarters, and tired legs on both sides make the fourth quarter a slow, half-court finish. That's why I'm siding with a lower-scoring game.
