Toulouse can pass through midfield into Russell-Rowe and Tengstedt, while Strasbourg can answer from the wings through Godo and Yassine. Toulouse made real chances at Marseille despite losing, and Strasbourg's wide creators made useful early contacts against Auxerre. The first goal may open a new receiving lane rather than decide the match. At Derby, the corresponding contest is more direct: Bolton's first release toward Dalby meets a home side searching for Morris and the second ball.
Godo and Yassine both played against Auxerre, with Harder taking the central role left by Panichelli. Dønnum played Toulouse's previous match but is suspended for this one, removing a named wide outlet. Toulouse's midfield can still reach Russell-Rowe, yet Strasbourg have the receivers to answer a home goal and find another wide pass after the next regain. That's why I'm siding with Strasbourg to avoid defeat.
Derby have sent balls toward Morris without consistently turning his first touch into clean repeat chances. Bolton can put Dalby onto a poor first pass, then use Gale or Iling-Junior around Derby's exposed far side. Szmodics was injured against Norwich and is out after surgery; Bolton's Forino, Famewo and Bonham played the Charlton shutout, and Ito has been cleared after cramp. With those present roles, Bolton can make the next useful box contact after Derby's opening pressure. That's why I'm siding with Bolton to win.
