Tokushima's compact back three meets a side that has been reaching the box through several central and wide receivers. The second ball around midfield should determine which team gets its first clean forward pass. The decisive question is whether those entries become shots directed at goal.
Iwao and Sugimoto give Tokushima a route toward Takagi and Barcelos, and Takagi has recently finished one Sugimoto delivery. Miyazaki's Watanabe and Yamauchi can contest that first pass, then feed Murakoshi or Okumura around the outside of the back three. Matsumoto Ken has supplied repeated final touches, including in the full-strength Oita game and the away game at Yamagata; Tokushima's recent possession has produced little accurate shooting.
Takada and Inami were already absent from Tokushima's last squad, while Iwao and Sugimoto started; those injuries are part of the current midfield picture, not fresh losses. The last Miyazaki front line is an observed lineup, not a confirmed selection for this match. I expect their midfield recovery to keep sending the ball to proven finishers, and that's why I'm siding with Tegevajaro Miyazaki.
