Three matches, and in each one the shape of the game matters more than the table. Stuttgart host Werder with their central midfield gutted and their legs heavy after four games in twelve days. Chicago and Columbus meet on Decision Day, when a draw is useless to both. Manchester City visit a Forest side whose home attack has gone completely silent.
Stuttgart against Werder: Stuttgart will have the ball and the shots, with Leweling and Fuhrich attacking the flanks and Undav and El Khannouss creating against a Werder back line without N'Diaye. But Stiller is out, Karazor is doubtful, the back three is missing Zagadou, Vagnoman and Stergiou, and young Seimen is in goal. Werder have scored in each of their last ten, and their goals come from routes that do not need the ball: Fullkrug in the air, penalties, set pieces and late crosses. Their trailing mode has repeatedly produced late goals, and Stuttgart's tired legs fade late. I expect goals at both ends.
Chicago against Columbus: Chicago concede in almost every match because of how they play, with space behind the full-backs and early red cards. Columbus have a ready-made answer in Tapia and Rodriguez running in behind and Chambost's set pieces. At the other end, Columbus's clean-sheet run rests on Schulte's saves, not on a closed defence. Without Camacho they gave up big chances at Toronto and Cincinnati. Chicago shoot a lot at home and came back in recent home games against Orlando and NYC. Only a win helps either side, so both ends should stay busy, and I'm siding with both teams finding the net.
Forest against City: Forest's back five held Arsenal for a long time, but their home attack has scored nothing in five league games at the City Ground. City's chance creation held up even in their two league defeats, which came down to finishing and goalkeeping swings, and the international break means a full side. Dominguez's absence also removes part of the midfield ball-winning that starts Forest's breaks. The real danger is a stalemate, not a Forest win, so I'm siding with City with the draw covered.
