The table says this is a mismatch, but the only meeting this season wasn't like for like. SOOP played that cup game without Audriana Fitzmorris, and she is the player who has given this new club its only route to winning sets. IBK are clearly the better side, yet their league sets have been settled by two or three points even at home. So the real question here is whether SOOP's opposite and middle can close out one set against IBK's serve and block.
IBK win through a spread attack. Victoria is the main hitter and the serve that breaks reception: a 9-0 run against GS came from one of her service sequences. Choi Jeong-min is the second route and the closer, with 23 points and 6 blocks against GS. Even so, their home sets against GS and Hyundai went 28-26, 25-27 and 25-23 twice, which are tight finishes rather than blowouts.
SOOP lose sets when their reception breaks and the setter is left with high balls. They win sets when Audriana's serve gets a run going and Lee Zhuxue's quicks are available. That is exactly how they took a set 25-17 against Expressway, the side that beat IBK 3-0 in the cup. Audriana had 23 points that day, Lee 17 and Ko Ye-rim 12.
The key matchup is Victoria's serve against a SOOP reception line that has lost outside hitter Park Eun-seo. That costs SOOP passing depth, but not their two scoring routes. On the other side, IBK's setting is still shared between Kim Ha-kyung and Park Eun-seo, and the receiving opposite Lee So-young is not fully fit after shoulder surgery.
I expect IBK's serve to win the early sets. The window comes around the third set. This is IBK's first league trip away from home, and they host title rival Hungkuk three days later, so easing off or giving minutes to others after a two-set lead is a real possibility. That is when an Audriana serving run can take a set in front of a home crowd chasing the club's first ever win.
That's why I'm siding with this match going beyond three sets, with SOOP taking at least one set off the leaders.
