Samsung sit top of the table because two things work at once: Kerem Kanter in the post and a heavy diet of threes. When the Kanter half stops, they become a much more ordinary side, as the Q4 collapse at DB showed. KT arrive short-handed but with a cast that has already won three straight in that state, built around Paris Bass's volume and Trey Porter's size. This shapes up as a close game decided by who owns the paint, settled late.
Samsung's offence runs through Kanter. In the first meeting he scored 30 with 13 rebounds and 14 free-throw attempts, and that post work also opens shots for everyone else. Around him, Samsung fire 28 to 31 threes a game and hit them well. KT win differently: Bass attacks for two-pointers and free throws, Porter controls the glass, and coach Moon runs an even ten-man rotation for energy.
The key matchup is Kanter against Porter in the middle quarters. Kanter's shoulder was described as not normal by his own coach on match day, and his last outing was 8 points on 2 of 8 inside in about 20 minutes before fouling out. If he is limited again, McCullough has to carry the frontcourt for heavy minutes in the third game in five days, after already playing 35 minutes at DB. Bass is the other side of it: 35 points against Samsung last time and 31 with 13 free throws in his latest game, with Samsung's wings having no clear answer.
KT's absences are long-term and already known, Kim Sun-hyung, Ha Yun-gi and Oczon, and the group that remains has a measured three-game run behind it. Samsung's question is fresh and sits on the one channel they can't easily replace.
I expect Samsung to start well, KT to grow into it in the second and third quarters through Porter and the glass, and the fourth quarter to decide it. Possessions look roughly level, with KT's rebounding against Samsung's ability to force a few turnovers.
That's why I'm siding with KT in a close game: their interior and free-throw volume points straight at the spot where Samsung are least certain, and I want the small cushion in a match that should come down to the final minutes.
