Two matches where the table gap and the defensive numbers point the same way: a first-place side with a clear edge at the back, and an unbeaten visitor that wins by margin rather than by luck.
In Seoul, the Thunders sit first at 10-2 and concede only about 80 a game, while KT gives up close to 87. The Thunders' margin per game is well above KT's, and their wins have come from defence plus enough three-point shooting. They have lost their last two, but KT's surge has come against a softer defensive profile. KT's turnovers swing widely, and every extra one feeds the Thunders in transition. That's why I'm siding with the Thunders at home to win by a field goal or more.
In Gunma, the Diamond Dolphins are 11-0 and have won every quarter on average. They draw a lot of free throws, protect the ball in most games and have held road opponents to around 79 points. Their road wins this season have come by 10 to 29. Gunma is a three-point-volume team that scores in bursts and has struggled when the shots miss. The Dolphins' schedule has been soft, but their margins are large enough to clear a narrow gap. That's why I'm siding with the Dolphins on the road to win by three or more.
