In Niigata the league leaders play a mid-table game under a top-of-the-table record, and they meet the leakiest box defence in the division. In Seongnam, a promotion chaser that creates freely visits a home side that barely shoots at home. Both matches are decided by which attacking routes meet which defensive gaps, not by the table.
Albirex Niigata v Imabari. Niigata win by one goal at a time, and at home they do not hold the ball: they counter, cross and attack set pieces. Those are the routes through which Imabari concede most, with over half their goals against coming from set pieces and crosses. Niigata have scored in nine of their last ten.
Imabari changed coach in September and now press man to man, keep the ball and attack wide, with Mori Kota the most productive creator over recent weeks. Niigata's back line is unsettled: two starters went off early last time, two more are listed absent, and a teenage keeper is in goal. Imabari blanked in both earlier meetings, but under a different coach. I expect goals at both ends, so I'm siding with both Niigata and Imabari finding the net.
Seongnam v Daegu. Daegu do not need the ball to hurt teams. Cesinha's crosses and corners drive their attack, and they have put seven or eight shots on target in each of their last three. Seongnam's keeper has conceded about half the shots on target he has faced.
Seongnam plan a tight central block, but at home they have managed only four and six shots in their last two matches and have not won in four. Ko Jae-hyeon is a doubt for Daegu, but he is a finisher, and Serafim scored twice on his last start. Daegu need the win for promotion and will keep pushing. That's why I'm siding with Daegu not to lose this one.
