Sociedad and Rayo both have ways to get beyond the first press, but the next accurate box chance looks more decisive than early possession. Sociedad's recent home wins have stayed narrow, while Rayo have a right-side route to answer a goal. Utrecht and NEC can both press into space the other leaves behind. Their set pieces, second balls and changing second-half attacks give this game more than one source of a late goal.
At Anoeta, Sociedad can use Sučić and Óskarsson to escape pressure, with Kubo another fresh creator. Rayo can answer through Rațiu and De Frutos against a home defence missing Sarr, who went off at halftime against Lyon and has since been ruled out. García and Valentín are also newly ruled out for Rayo, while Ciss is reported back after missing the Celta match; those changes make the right-side link especially important. Rayo's rest and that repeat outlet make me side with Rayo to stay close.
Utrecht's planned early press can reach NEC's changing back three, while Chery, Linssen and Tadić give NEC ways out toward Utrecht's unsettled transition cover. Utrecht's existing absences were already reflected in the Telstar team; Broholm and Alarcón both contributed there, and Barkas may return in goal. NEC played Omonia with a corner and late Tadić contribution that show separate supplies after the first attack. I expect both teams to keep creating after an initial chance is stopped, so I'm siding with more goals in Utrecht against NEC.
