This match turns on the first pass after a midfield regain. QPR can reach the box quickly through Smyth and Poku, while Burnley can build wide service toward Vardy and Hountondji. The quality of the next touch inside the area matters more than raw shot volume.
Smyth fed Kone after a Swansea turnover, Poku also found him in the box, and Vale's corner reached Dunne. Burnley created plenty of attempts against Portsmouth but few on target, and its recent exits and clearances have offered opponents a route to a second contact. Chair's return has been limited in minutes; Burnley is now under Celestini, with Cullen and Ramsey also only recently back in short stints. I expect QPR to press the first Burnley pass, then use Kone's current finishing and Dunne's dead-ball arrival to make the pressure count. That's why I'm siding with QPR.
