Houston against Phoenix pits size and the foul line against turnover pressure, and Houston's ball security has held up in most games. In Portland against San Antonio, the Spurs' winning run was built against a uniformly soft schedule. Meanwhile, Portland's record came mostly on the road against tougher opponents. Both games are less one-sided than the names suggest, but in different directions.
Suns vs Rockets. Houston win through Sengun in the post, the glass and a steady flow of free throws, while Phoenix's route is steals into transition and threes from Booker and Brooks. Phoenix forced 25 turnovers against a weakened Orlando, but only 15 to 19 against OKC, Denver, Golden State and Portland. Houston kept their turnovers at 16 or fewer in seven of nine games.
Houston are without Capela and Adams, but that is not new. They have already played three games without both and won two of them by 16 or more, against OKC and Boston. Phoenix have no shot-blocking anchor with Williams out, and this is their third game in four nights against a Houston side on three days of rest. Houston beat seven of nine opponents by four or more, and their two losses had clear causes. That's why I'm siding with Houston to win with a little room to spare.
Trail Blazers vs Spurs. All seven wins in San Antonio's run came in games where they were heavy favourites. In their two games against good teams they lost both, by 4 and by 12. Portland are 6-2 with six of those games on the road, including wins at Denver and the Lakers.
The Spurs hold real edges: Portland lose the ball often and foul a lot, while San Antonio take care of the ball and rarely send opponents to the line. Portland's answer is the biggest single gap in the matchup, nearly 16 made threes a game against a defence that allows over 38 percent from deep, while the Spurs shoot poorly from outside themselves. Wembanyama against Clingan decides the rim, and both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back. Weighing it all, I expect a game decided by a few points either way. That's why I'm siding with Portland to stay close at home.
