Nice against Rennes looks like a game that should open up rather than stay tight. Rennes carry the volume and the penalty-winning, while Nice are a low-event side whose back line has been patched for weeks. Neither side is dominant, so the match is more likely to be settled by chances at both ends than by control.
Rennes average about 18 shots and 6 on target a game, and their away matches have been busy: 3-4 at Paris FC and a 2-2 at Juventus in Europe, with 7 scored and 12 conceded in six away games. Nice sit 10th with modest attacking numbers, but they concede around 1.6 expected goals a game and went through the last three league games without Mendy and Bombito, with Abdi doubtful. That patched line already gave up two at Brest and two at Lyon.
Rennes have their own problem: Samba is out in goal, so a backup keeper gives Nice a second route to a goal even with a quiet attack. Lepaul has been missing for two games already, and those were a 3-0 and a 2-2, so his absence is already in the recent picture. A Rennes goal pulls Nice out of their shell, and a Nice goal leaves Rennes chasing. That is why I'm siding with goals in Nice against Rennes.
Elversberg against Mainz is a match between two leaky sides, but Mainz create clearly more. Over the recent games they average about 18 shots and nearly 7 on target, against roughly 12 shots and 4 on target for Elversberg, and the on-target gap matters because Elversberg concede around 2 expected goals a game.
Elversberg's back line also has three defenders listed with knocks from the cup game, and their attack has scored nothing in three of their last five. Mainz won 1-0 at Schalke, where Elversberg could only draw 0-0. Mainz have long-term holes in midfield (Kohr, Silas, Ruoppi), but those have been missing for weeks and are already in the recent numbers; the keeper Zentner is the one fresh question.
The game should see Mainz hold the ball and shoot while Elversberg sit and break. A draw is a real outcome here, which is why I want that protected. That's why I'm siding with Mainz not to lose.
