New Zealand have a clear way into this match through Chris Wood's hold-up play and runners arriving around him. India can stay compact, then move quickly into the space behind New Zealand's defenders. The first forward pass on each side matters more here than long spells of possession. Both teams have changed personnel in areas that protect those first attacks.
Wood can receive in front of India's centre backs, lay the ball off to Garbett or McCowatt, or attack a wide delivery himself. India have been exposed when a cross reaches the central striker before the defence can clear. At the other end, Akash Mishra's direct pass found Ryan Williams for a goal against Panama, and a Williams run led to Thapa's rebound equaliser against Uruguay.
India's touring squad still includes Mishra, Williams, Manvir and Thapa, who played in that Uruguay match. Gurpreet, Anwar Ali and Apuia also started against Uruguay but are absent from this touring group. New Zealand retain Wood, while Bindon has withdrawn after playing against China and Panama; Boxall and Kelly-Heald have joined the defence late.
New Zealand should find Wood early and test India's new central combination with wide service and second balls. India have a direct answer when Mishra or another wide passer releases Williams before the home defence resets. That's why I'm siding with a New Zealand goal and an India goal in this match.
