Both of these matches are shaped by a weak defence that meets exactly the attack it struggles with. In Koln, Leverkusen's problems after losing the ball meet a striker-less home side that is built to counter. In Naples, a home defence in emergency meets a fresh Lazio side with a bench that has been winning games, while Napoli still have the creators to hurt anyone at home.
Koln against Leverkusen first. Koln have no fit box striker, and their poor league games came when they had to carry the ball, with over 60 percent possession against Union and Schalke. Here the roles flip. Leverkusen will hold the ball, and their recent defeats came from turnovers and quick breaks: Stuttgart scored twice inside 22 minutes, Hoffenheim created chances freely, and Marseille won it with a late break after a high turnover. Maina, Said El Mala and Moore are the carriers who run into that space. Schwabe has been saving more than the shots against him suggested, and Leverkusen's keeper has not. Leverkusen also come in after a Thursday European game with a thin attacking bench, while Koln have had a full week. Their real threat is corners and Schick against Koln's patched back three. Still, the setting suits Koln. That's why I'm siding with Koln not to lose.
Napoli against Lazio. Napoli are without Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Spinazzola, Badiashile and Favasuli, and Marianucci is suspended. They lost their corner marking twice at Porto, have conceded in each of their last five, and have had three and a half days to recover. Lazio's right-side delivery through Isaksen, their aerial threat at set pieces and a bench that decided the Cagliari and Juventus games all aim at that. Napoli still have their own route: De Bruyne's delivery and McTominay's runs produced nine and eight shots on target at home against Roma and Bodo. Gattuso has said his side will trade blows rather than sit. I expect goals at both ends in Naples.
