Three Champions League matches where the structure says more than the table. Napoli return a first-choice side against a Bodo team whose away version at an elite ground has been passive. Porto, fully rested, score late, and they meet a PSV side without a striker that keeps leaking goals after the break. At Anfield, two front-foot teams who both concede in transition should each find the net.
Napoli v Bodo/Glimt. Napoli lose through individual errors, not by being outplayed: even the rotated side that lost in Venice had 29 shots. This time De Bruyne, Hojlund and Lobotka come back into the starting XI. Bodo pressed Dortmund into a home win on their artificial pitch, but at Bayern they had a third of the ball and no shot on target. Without Evjen, their creator, and with Blomberg doubtful, they have fewer ways to relieve pressure. The early build-up phase is Bodo's moment; after that, Napoli's volume and set pieces should take over. That's why I'm siding with Napoli.
Porto v PSV. Porto's goals come after half-time: Samu, Pietuszewski and Sainz off the bench have broken open Benfica, Casa Pia and Betis. PSV concede in the same window, late at Twente, Den Haag and Leipzig. This is their third match in eight days after a long spell with ten men, while Porto had a full week off. With Pepi, Lammers and Plea all out, PSV's possession has little to aim at in the box, and Bednarek's return restores Porto's first-choice centre-backs. A tight first half and a turn after the hour points to Porto, so I'm siding with the home side.
Liverpool v Villarreal. Liverpool press high and push their line up, and they have conceded in seven of their last ten, including three at LASK after going 4-0 up. Villarreal build through the press even away to strong teams, and they have conceded to every strong opponent this season. Their blanks came against deep blocks, and Liverpool do not sit deep. Liverpool's regains should bring goals, and Villarreal's runners should find the space behind. That's why I expect both sides to score.
