Two B.League games where the favourites look stronger on paper but the recent margins say the gaps are narrower than the table suggests.
In Nagasaki, Sendai arrive 11-4 on a 9-of-10 run with the better defence and free-throw shooting. But their shooting percentages are almost identical to Nagasaki's, and only half of Sendai's last ten wins were by a clear margin; several were one or two point escapes. Nagasaki beat Sendai twice at home in March. I expect Sendai to build a lead in the middle quarters, with Nagasaki's late scoring the pressure point, but a close home game is the central picture. That's why I'm siding with Nagasaki to stay within the margin.
In Matsue, Shimane have lost four straight, most by one to three points, and have rarely won by a wide margin at home lately. Toyama are 5-0 in their last ten away games and beat Shimane 82-79 last month. Both teams score in the low 80s and concede about 85, so the game should come down to a few possessions, turnovers and third-quarter runs. Shimane's rest edge is real, but a big win needs more than the form shows. That's why I'm siding with Toyama to keep it close on the road.
