Freiburg against Union looks like territory against a block that is missing its spine, and the question is whether Freiburg score before Thursday's legs go. At Old Trafford, United keep the ball without out-creating anyone, and the players who protect them against counters are missing. Both matches turn on one side's main weapon running into a newly weakened unit.
Freiburg at home against non-elite sides have been in control. They allowed only 0.19 to 0.54 xG in those games, and their goals come from Beste's and Scherhant's crosses and late runs by Eggestein and Engelhardt. Union sit in a 5-4-1 and live on low-volume moments. Away at better sides that has produced almost nothing, around a third of an xG at Bayern and at Leverkusen.
The absences shape the mesh. Union have no recognised centre-back pair, with Markgraf, Nsoki and Uduokhai all out, and they have also lost Skov, their set-piece taker, and Kemlein. That weakens both the block and their best route to a goal. Freiburg's core from Trabzon is intact, and with the break next there is no reason to rest anyone. Fatigue is real for the hosts, but Union rarely keep the ball long enough to use a second-half drop. I expect Freiburg to score before the hour and the bench to manage the rest. That's why I'm siding with Freiburg to win.
At Old Trafford the numbers don't match the badge. In their last two league home games United were out-created by Tottenham and by Bournemouth, and they have conceded in each of their last ten matches. Lisandro Martinez is suspended, and both midfield destroyers, Ugarte and Baleba, are out. Maguire and young Heaven are expected at centre-back, behind a Tielemans-Mainoo pairing with no natural screen.
That suits Emery's Villa well. They sit in a mid block, win the ball in midfield and send Jackson, Manzambi and McGinn into the channels. They have scored in eight of their last ten and won at Tottenham on a third of the ball. United's best route is Cunha against a makeshift Villa right side, plus Fernandes's dead balls, and a late surge if the game opens up. Villa can win it on the break or hold a draw while United's possession stays sterile. That's why I'm siding with Aston Villa not to lose.
