Liverpool's new pressing shape makes the opening pass a central contest against Arsenal. Arsenal can play through that pressure and can also create from restarts, so the first goal alone may not settle the match. Elche and Valencia face a slower version of the same question: whether controlled possession produces a clean shot before the counter arrives. Both games can stay close even when one side has more territory.
Liverpool can release Barcola toward Isak after a turnover, but Arsenal's Rice and Ødegaard give them a way past the first line and into Gyökeres or a second runner. Arsenal's league defense has kept opponents' first accurate shots scarce, and its Everton corner sequence showed a separate finishing route. Saliba and Saka remain out after missing recent matches; Rice played Everton and has trained since the cup. Liverpool's Wirtz has played the last two matches despite an older injury marker. I expect Arsenal to absorb the early press, build longer spells and find a decisive clean chance through midfield or a restart. That's why I'm siding with Arsenal.
Elche's Villar and Lemar can find the pass behind Valencia's midfield, with Revivo or Valera arriving for the next contact. Valencia can sit compact and use Danjuma or Rioja in the fullback space, but its recent away possession has seldom become an accurate first shot. Elche have already used Morcillo and Redondo to cover Aguado's continuing absence. Valencia's Otorbi played briefly against Villarreal before injury and is now out; Elliott's sending off removes another creative change option. I expect Elche to work through the middle and wide second ball while closing the first counter with those tested defensive roles. That's why I'm siding with Elche.
