Tokyo arrive as the far stronger team on paper, but their huge winning margins have come from a specific kind of opponent: one that loses the glass and turns the ball over again and again. Kobe are not that opponent. Their two-man frontcourt rebounds as well as anyone Tokyo face, so the margin comes down to shooting and free throws rather than a flood of second chances. Against competent sides, Tokyo have tended to win by single digits.
Tokyo win with depth and the ball in many hands. They hit about nine and a half threes a game at close to 35 percent, gain roughly three points a game at the free-throw line, and outrebound opponents by about nine. Their routs (24 at Osaka, 43 at Chiba, 32 against Nagasaki) came when the other side also coughed it up 13 to 22 times. Against Shinshu, Kyoto and Sendai, the gap was five to seven points, and they have lost to Sendai, Toyama and Nagoya.
Kobe's identity is Aimaq and Childs. Aimaq pulled down 23 rebounds at Yokohama in the last game, and Kobe outrebound opponents by about eight a game too, so the glass should be close to even. That removes Tokyo's main blowout engine. What is left is a measured edge from three and from the line, worth something like four to six points.
The absence that matters is Terazono. The captain and point guard strained a thigh muscle and missed the last game, so he is treated as out. Kobe handled it fine at Yokohama with only 12 turnovers, but that is one game, and Tokyo's guards will test it. Tokyo have no reported absences.
The danger period is the second quarter, Kobe's weakest stretch, when the import pair rests and Tokyo's deeper bench can open a lead. Kobe's fourth quarters have been strong, though, and at home they have not lost by more than ten in their last ten games.
Putting the measured pieces together, I see Tokyo winning by somewhere around six to ten. That's why I'm siding with Kobe to stay within reach at home.
