France can own the ball and still meet a tight Italian middle that pushes its first efforts wider. Italy can escape that pressure through a wide ball or keep a restart alive for a close touch. Their last meeting had frequent French shots on target but only one completed French scoring move. The next finish, after the first save or clearance, is the central question here.
Olise and Doué can receive between Italy's fullback and centre back, while Barella can deliver toward Calafiori or Pio Esposito at the other end. Bastoni and Scalvini remain in Italy's central unit, with Donnarumma behind them. France's Dembélé, Akliouche, Koné and Lepaul played the latest match but are now reported out, leaving a changed central recipient and late attacking wave. Italy are also missing Kean, who supplied the far-post threat in the direct meeting.
France should test Italy's block repeatedly, and Italy should still find moments behind the French press. The earlier Paris pressure required a free kick for its French goal, while France's later burst against Belgium came in one late spell. I expect chances on both sides without a steady supply of separate close finishes. That's why I'm siding with fewer goals in Italy against France.
