Two matches where both teams create a lot and defend loosely. Neither side in either game looks built to protect a lead, so the goals should come from open exchanges rather than from one team controlling everything.
Inter against Como: both attacks produce about two expected goals a game with eighteen to nineteen shots, and both concede a little over one. Inter's back line is thin after illness and the derby defeat, while Como arrive on six straight wins with a possession-heavy attack through Paz and Douvikas. Thuram and Esposito have scored against Como before, and three of the last four meetings were high scoring. Inter's strong first halves at home point to early chances, and Como tend to score as the game opens up. That's why I'm on goals in this one.
Utrecht against Nijmegen: both defences leak, with expected goals against near 1.8 and 1.9, and Utrecht have been conceding close to three a league game. Nijmegen shoot a lot and have centre-back problems that have already lasted several games, while Utrecht are short in midfield but rested. An early goal either way forces the other side to chase and opens the game. I'm backing goals here too.
