AZ and Groningen meet at the point where high pressure becomes a finished chance. AZ can win territory and make Groningen defend repeated entries, while Groningen have more than one runner for a direct response. Le Mans against Monaco has a similar first-pass contest, with a home press and wide outlet meeting a visiting side with several finishers. Both matches turn on whether the stronger visitor or host can build another clean box contact after an initial lead.
AZ's recent attacks have reached the box but left too many attempts blocked or saved. Groningen can protect the first pass through Willumsson and send Van Bergen and Ondrejka into separate receiving positions. Those Groningen attackers played Sparta; AZ's Smit returned for substitute minutes against Juventus, while Hornkamp and Resink were absent. AZ have had a short recovery since Juventus, so Groningen's direct and second-wave supply should stay relevant as the match opens. That's why I'm siding with Groningen to keep AZ's margin narrow.
Le Mans can press Monaco's pivot with two forwards and move the ball from Bretelle toward Calodat, Mafouta and Diallo. Calodat and Bretelle played the last match, as did both forwards, although Bourabaa, Colas and Sidibé were missing. Monaco's travelling squad still contains Balogun, Brunner and other finishers despite Fati and Idumbo being left out. Le Mans' settled suppliers and longer recovery make repeated home replies plausible after Monaco's spells on the ball. That's why I'm siding with Le Mans to resist a clear separation.
