Indiana against Washington looks like a half-court game played at a moderate pace. Washington's offence funnels through Anthony Davis in the post and Young in pick-and-roll, with very little from outside or from the bench. Indiana, without Haliburton, move the ball through Nembhard and Siakam. Neither team has scored like a high-total side with its current roster.
Washington's outside game is the floor of this matchup. Over six recent games they made 59 of 193 threes, often on low volume: 7 of 43 at Oklahoma City, 9 of 36 at Detroit, 6 of 26 against Atlanta. Their bench scored 10, 14 and 16 in the last three. Almost everything runs through Davis, who had 44 at Detroit, and a one-man half-court offence takes time off the clock.
Indiana are playing without Haliburton. Their three games without him finished at 210, 216 and 247 combined. Their four home games all stayed well short of a high-scoring night, at 223, 188, 212 and 216. Washington's games with Davis on the floor finished between 174 and 233. The only shootout, 271, came without him.
The matchups to watch are Davis against Indiana's thin glass, and Indiana's deeper bench against Washington's quiet one. Davis will get his points and his free throws. But the minutes when Washington's second unit plays are low-scoring minutes for Washington, and their turnovers tend to give Indiana runs rather than trade baskets. Siakam faded after half-time at Dallas, which keeps Indiana's late scoring modest too. McConnell is questionable, but he plays bench minutes.
Put the eight games with these rosters side by side and they average around 217 points. A cross-check from both teams' last nine games lands near 222. Washington are also at the end of a four-game road trip, on the front end of a back-to-back.
That's why I'm going with the lower-scoring game here.
