Indiana and Washington can both score early, but their next possessions are likely to decide the game. Washington can create extra shots around Anthony Davis, while Indiana has more ways to turn mistakes into quick baskets. The middle quarters should test which team can keep scoring after the first action and then finish a defensive possession.
Andrew Nembhard has kept Indiana's offense moving with Pascal Siakam and a productive bench. Davis scored heavily in his return, yet Washington gave up transition points, committed 18 turnovers and got little scoring from its reserves in that same game. Indiana still has Nembhard, Isaiah Jackson, Obi Toppin and Aaron Nesmith to supply the next basket when Washington adjusts. That's why I'm siding with the Pacers to finish ahead.
Toronto's Shead-to-Poeltl connection can create early offense, while Boston can answer with several perimeter scorers. The important stretch comes after Toronto's first push, when both teams must find a second effective shot and secure the rebound. Boston showed that response when Philadelphia tied their game.
Jayson Tatum, Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser each contributed to that answer, and Queta and Robinson can contest Jakob Poeltl inside. Boston has lost George after his big scoring game, but Toronto is also missing Barnes and has uncertain returns for Quickley and Murray-Boyles after they missed Memphis. Shead and Poeltl produced against Memphis without enough team scoring behind them. That's why I'm siding with the Celtics to finish ahead.
