Hoffenheim against Schalke pushes a pressing side into the role it handles worst: holding the ball against a deep block on tired legs. Schalke, though, have shown almost no way to punish that. Hoffenheim's open, high-scoring home games came against teams that could attack, and this opponent has the weakest attack in the league.
Hoffenheim under Ilzer are at their best when the opponent wants the ball, as in the wins over Lyon and Leverkusen. Against a block their output drops, as at Bremen. Schalke under Muslic have four league goals in eight games and none at home, no striker has scored, and four of their last five expected-goal figures are well under one. They manage fewer than three shots on target a game.
The absences on both sides point the same way. Hoffenheim are missing Hajdari, Hranac, Gendrey and Coufal, and are coming off a Thursday trip to London, so their back line is patched and their press will fade after the hour. That also blunts their own attack. Schalke are without Sylla, their main finisher, and Woeber, who scored their late winner at Union. Gosens arriving at the back post is their most plausible route, on thin crossing volume.
I expect Hoffenheim territory early and maybe a goal from a regain or a set piece, then a slower, tighter game as legs go. Whether Hoffenheim break through or stall against the block, Schalke's attack has to find something it hasn't shown all season. That's why I'm siding with Schalke not scoring, or the hosts drawing a blank of their own.
